Oh shit, the Globes are TODAY??? Alright, time to start pretending these shits matter in any context other than making the Oscar race a touch less cloudy. Predictions below!
Best Motion Picture Drama
Mad Max: Fury Road
Prediction: Damn, it’s pretty stacked this year. Still we’re going to go with The Revenant. While we loved Mad Max and Room, and Carol and Spotlight definitely had their virtues, The Revenant is coming strong into award season with a comfortable marriage of action and drama and a director on a career tear. Spotlight is probably its strongest competition, but while that film’s straightforward, staid style might be a win for fans of TV procedurals, it might not as easily wow the Hollywood Foreign Press.
Best Motion Picture Musical or Comedy
The Big Short
Prediction: The Big Short. David O. Russell didn’t get the response he was looking for with Joy, which hopefully inspires him to get up off his laurels. The Martian was cute but seems to have been retroactively labeled a comedy due to how impossible it was to take seriously. Spy and Trainwreck are good contenders, but the HFP has been notoriously bad at awarding screwball comedies. (Remember when Bridesmaids got beat by The Artist? Ask yourself, which of those two movies have you rewatched more often over the past four years?) The Big Short is perfect: a screwball director (Adam McKay, whose most recent credit is Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues) taking on tough material and somehow hitting a grand slam. This movie won’t lose in this category.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture Drama
Cate Blanchett – Carol
Brie Larson – Room
Rooney Mara – Carol
Saoirse Ronan – Brooklyn
Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl
Prediction: Could it be anyone other than Cate? We doubt it. Look at her eponymous character in Carol: she even looks like an award-winner. Rooney is Carol‘s true MC, but how can you spend a whole movie next to Cate and not wind up a second banana? The strongest challenger is Brie Larson, who was perfect in a tough role in Room, but she often seemed to be doing penance rather than performing. At least Cate’s Carol got to do things other than suffer.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture Drama
Bryan Cranston – Trumbo
Leonardo DiCaprio – The Revenant
Michael Fassbender – Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne – The Danish Girl
Will Smith – Concussion
Prediction: It’s got to be Leo here, and not just because he’s absolutely, egregiously overdue. It’s also kind of a crap shoot without his presence. Cranston is an old white man starring in the requisite annual Movie About Hollywood–aka, self-gratification of an industry full of old white men. Elsewhere, Redmayne has had his day; Smith’s performance is more altruism than acting (which is plenty fashionable these days, but still); and as far as Fassbender goes, well, playing Steve Jobs never helped anybody. Leo wins.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture Musical or Comedy
Jennifer Lawrence – Joy
Melissa McCarthy – Spy
Amy Schumer – Trainwreck
Maggie Smith – The Lady in the Van
Lily Tomlin – Grandma
Prediction: Does J-Law win this just cuz she’s J-Law? Not necessarily, but the field doesn’t look too green for anyone who’s not J-Law. We’ve got the screwball problem with McCarthy and Schumer, and it’s useless to pretend that Smith and Tomlin’s presence isn’t pure formality. J-Law is simply the best bet, unless the Year of Schumer extends itself into 2016. Which it might, but not here.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture Musical or Comedy
Christian Bale – The Big Short
Steve Carell – The Big Short
Matt Damon – The Martian
Al Pacino – Danny Collins
Mark Ruffalo – Infinitely Polar Bear
Prediction: Ugh. It’s probably going to be Matt Damon. Even though The Martian was mostly a drag, it’s hard not to award the guy who has to carry all of his scenes alone. Bale and Carell cancel each other out, although Carell has the stronger chance (Bale hardly has enough screen time for a lead actor designation). Pacino is a formality and Ruffalo’s movie is called Infinitely Polar Bear.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture
Jane Fonda – Youth
Jennifer Jason Leigh – The Hateful Eight
Helen Mirren – Trumbo
Alicia Vikander – Ex Machina
Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs
Prediction: Fonda, Mirren, and Winslet just feel like awards season window dressings. And while Alicia Vikander’s performance as a subversive AI was impressive in its own right, Jennifer Jason Leigh‘s Daisy Domergue was as strong a force as any of the men in The Hateful Eight, and the impact of her performance almost makes you forget that she was a supporting character.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture
Paul Dano – Love and Mercy
Idris Elba – Beasts of No Nation
Mark Rylance – Bridge of Spies
Michael Shannon – 99 Homes
Sylvester Stallone – Creed
Prediction: It’s tempting to find that Dano’s nuanced performance as troubled Beach Boy Brian Wilson may be the runner-up to the nostalgia-driven performance of Stallone, but Idris Elba‘s Commandant proved to be the strong backbone that stabalized Beasts of No Nation. His shot is slightly more solid than the others in this category.
Best Director – Motion Picture
Todd Haynes – Carol
Alejandro G. Inarritu – The Revenant
Tom McCarthy – Spotlight
George Miller – Mad Max: Fury Road
Ridley Scott – The Martian
Prediction: George Miller’s work on his action masterpiece is worthy of its nomination and the win in this category, but we’re hesitant to believe the HFPA will award something so typically non-prestige, especially since Inarritu‘s work is equally matched in vision and execution.
Best Motion Picture – Animated
The Good Dinosaur
The Peanuts Movie
Shaun the Sheep
Prediction: The only two real contenders here are Anomalisa and Inside Out. Even though Anomalisa could be in consideration for Best Picture at the Oscars, the HPFA likes to favor accessibility, so Inside Out will likely get the win here.
Best Television Series – Drama
Game of Thrones
Prediction: The Golden Globe rules are unclear in their nomination timeline for television shows, and for that reason it’s hard to tell which season of Empire is nominated for this award. But even with its record-breaking first season, we don’t know if Empire‘s viewership will carry it to gold. Game of Thrones came off a great season and an Emmy win, but the TV Globes are more often given to freshman shows. Mr. Robot has the prestige buzz, viewership, and novelty that this award wants for its winner.
Best Television Series – Musical or Comedy
Mozart in the Jungle
Orange is the New Black
Prediction: Transparent‘s buzz has not lessened since its win last year, and while the Globes like to give awards to new shows, the two new ones in this list haven’t made many ripples. The rest of the nominees are shows that have hit their stride, but Transparent will likely take home the trophy again.
Best Television Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
American Horror Story: Hotel
Flesh & Bone
Prediction: American Horror Story: Hotel is a placeholder, Flesh and Bone has received some positive buzz, though not as much as Wolf Hall and American Crime. Still, Fargo and its accents will likely snag this award for the second year in a row.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series – Drama
Caitriona Balfe – Outlander
Viola Davis – How to Get Away with Murder
Eva Green – Penny Dreadful
Taraji P. Henson – Empire
Robin Wright – House of Cards
Prediction: Empire owes much of its success to its powerful leading lady, and while Viola may have nabbed the Emmy, we think Taraji has the clout to snag this award.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series – Drama
Jon Hamm – Mad Men
Rami Malek – Mr. Robot
Wagner Moura – Narcos
Bob Odenkirk – Better Call Saul
Liev Schreiber – Ray Donovan
Prediction: Sure, all these guys are great, but Jon Hamm‘s Mad Men victory lap should have one more go around.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy
Rachel Bloom – Crazy Ex-Girlfriend
Jamie Lee Curtis – Scream Queens
Julia Louis-Dreyfus – Veep
Gina Rodriguez – Jane the Virgin
Lily Tomlin – Grace and Frankie
Prediction: Ever favoring a newcomer, we think the HFPA will give this award to Rachel Bloom. Reviews for her performance and the show have been favorable, and as a musical television show, she’s got a novelty edge over her fellow nominees.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy
Aziz Ansari – Master of None
Gael Garcia Bernal – Mozart in the Jungle
Rob Lowe – The Grinder
Patrick Stewart – Blunt Talk
Jeffrey Tambour – Transparent
Prediction: Even though four out of five of these guys are all first-time nominees in their roles, and as we’ve said several times previously, the HFPA loves a newbie, we think Jeffrey Tambour‘s dominance will continue for the second consecutive year.